Recently, Professor Li Jiashuo’s team at the Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, together with collaborators from Adelaide University, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, the University of Hong Kong and other institutions, published a research article in Nature entitled “Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling.” The study develops a comprehensive framework for evaluating global end-of-life photovoltaic (PV) module recycling and provides a scientific basis for building a more efficient and equitable global PV waste management system.

Fig. Model framework and scenario settings.

PV is one of the world’s fastest-growing clean energy technologies and plays a key role in the global energy transition. However, as earlier PV installations gradually reach the end of their service life, the large-scale retirement of PV modules is becoming a major challenge. These modules contain valuable materials, including silicon, silver and copper, while improper disposal can release hazardous substances and create environmental risks. Given the regional imbalance between PV deployment and recycling systems worldwide, along with differences in installed capacity, recycling technologies, and economic conditions across countries, no single recycling governance strategy fits global realities.

To address these challenges, the research team developed an integrated modelling framework that links material supply constraints, future PV deployment and waste generation with region-specific recycling technologies, cross-regional waste flows and policy interventions. The framework was applied to 32 regions and 1,708 recycling practice scenarios, allowing the researchers to examine how material supply, technology choices, trade and policy jointly shape the economic and climate benefits of PV recycling and their distribution across regions.

The study projects that cumulative global PV waste will reach 297–402 million tonnes by 2060. PV waste generation is also expected to shift over time from high-income regions towards emerging economies, particularly China and India. The analysis further shows that rising prices of materials such as silicon, silver, copper and aluminium could slow PV deployment and consequently reduce future waste generation.

The team also compared the economic and climate performance of different recycling pathways that incorporate mechanical, thermal, and chemical technologies. Global PV recycling is projected to become economically viable between 2035 and 2040 as recovered materials become more valuable and technological learning lowers recycling costs. Recycling can also deliver substantial climate benefits by reducing lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.

A key finding is a trade-off between efficiency and equality in global PV waste management. Allowing PV waste to be recycled across regions can increase overall economic and climate benefits by directing waste towards regions with more advanced technologies and lower recycling costs. However, these gains can become concentrated in technologically advanced regions, widening disparities in recycling benefits. The study shows that well-designed policy interventions can help address this imbalance: among the subsidy schemes examined, declining subsidies offer a particularly cost-effective approach by supporting recycling during its early development while gradually phasing out support as the industry becomes economically viable.

Based on these findings, the researchers call for regionally adapted PV recycling strategies that combine technological innovation, appropriate policy support and international cooperation. Regions with established industrial capacity could prioritise advanced recycling technologies and targeted recovery of high-value materials, while technology transfer, capacity building and targeted financial support could help less-developed regions strengthen their recycling capabilities. Such coordinated efforts could help reconcile economic efficiency with regional equality and support a more resilient and inclusive global circular PV system.

The authors include Li Jiashuo, Wang Chen, Yuan Pengfei, Xin Yu, Liu Xi and Tian Peipei from Shandong University; Zuo Jian and Chang Ruidong from Adelaide University; Chen Xinyu from Huazhong University of Science and Technology; Feng Kuishuang from the University of Hong Kong; Li Jing from Taiyuan University of Technology; and John Laurence Esguerra from Linköping University.

The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Australian Research Council, the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the Shandong University–Adelaide University Research Seed Fund.